Auto sales continue to improve auto parts "annual drop" impact can be controlled
Dec 26,2023
On December 25, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers collated data from the General Administration of Customs showed that the amount of automobile exports in November increased by 1.3%, up 18.6% year-on-year. from January to November, the country's cumulative import and export amount of automobiles increased by 14.7% year-on-year. Among them, the amount of imports fell by 14.3% year-on-year, and the amount of exports increased by 31.1% year-on-year, and the automobile exports continue to maintain rapid growth.
In sharp contrast to the export data, the auto parts sector recently fell more. Due to market rumors Tesla asked its supply chain of auto parts prices "annual drop" 10%, significantly higher than the conventional 3% range, triggering market panic. The "annual drop" is the practice of the automobile industry, the end of the year to the beginning of the year is the car companies and suppliers of the negotiation time. In the past two years, the competition among automobile enterprises has intensified, in order to seize the market share, some of the automobile enterprises through price cuts to stimulate consumption, resulting in a decline in the profits of automobile manufacturers, prompting automobile enterprises to transfer the pressure of cost control to automobile parts and components suppliers. The market has been worried that there will be excess "annual drop", is currently in the early stages of the negotiations more rumors, superimposed on the plate in the early stages of a large increase, the overall risk appetite of A-shares decline and other factors, triggering the plate retracement.
We believe that with the intensification of competition in the industry, the "annual decline" pressure has increased, but will not have such a high rate of decline. Parts and components enterprises in the past few years, stable gross margins, by improving capacity utilization, upstream transmission, access to new orders with higher gross margins and other ways to digest the pressure, the overall impact is controllable. The current domestic automobile enterprises products, technology, brand continued to improve, new energy vehicles have obvious advantages in the field. With the arrival of the end of the peak season of consumption, some of the heavyweight models of car enterprises at the end of the finale of the listing, will further release the consumer demand for car purchases, is expected to continue to grow year-on-year sales in December.
It should be noted that some of the production capacity over-investment in the industry chain sub-fields, as well as customer guidance significantly lower than expected enterprises will have margin pressure. Such as capital expenditure in the past few years is more concentrated die-casting link margin pressure, product barriers are not high, competition is full of stamping and other links also need to pay attention to the margin risk, while the steam glass, lamps, thermal management, interior and other pattern of stability in the sub-field, "the annual decline" pressure can be controlled.
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